Back to the Future

The emergence of Nate McLouth this season has caught a lot of people really off guard. Sure many of us thought he was an excellent ballplayer, but no one would have ever really expected this from him.

The side benefit of Nate's breakout year is that it seems that the curse of Pirate centerfielders may be over (Of course there is that possibility that Nate may not be in center next year). Now that the season is dwindling down I was curious about how Nate would compare to the last competent centerfield for the Bucs, Chris Duffy, Tike Redman, Adrian Brown, Jermaine Allensworth, Brant Brown, Jacob Brumfield, Mike Kingery, Andy Van Slyke. (I am not counting Kenny Lofton's half season.)

I was quite surprised to see that Nate and Andy both compare rather favorably in two season that are exactly 20 years apart.

Player	Year	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Van Slyke	1988	154	587	101	169	23	15	25	100	30	57	126	.288	.345	.506	.851
McLouth	2008	140	549	106	155	44	4	26	92	20	59	84	.282	.362	.519	.881

In 1988 Van Slyke was an All-Star, won the Silver Slugger award, and finished fourth in MVP balloting behind Kirk Gibson, Darryl Strawberry, and Kevin McReynolds.

This year Nate too was an All-Star, though I think he won't get that many, if any, MVP votes as Andy did,and he is well behind Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, and Randy Winn for the Silver Slugger.

But looking at the two it is amazing how close, but different the two of them were. Through Sunday, Nate already has more runs, more than double the amount of doubles, more home runs, more walks, and far fewer strike outs.

If I were to project out the rest of the season, Andy will definitely have more triples, stolen bases, and strike outs. Hits are going to be a tough one to gauge, but I am thinking Nate will surpass his totals from 1988.

This comparison I think gives a ton of insight into how much the game has changed in just 20 years. The two quickly glaring differences are speed and plate discipline. In 1988 we were still playing a game that valued speed. Van Slyke was a rare breed that combined some pop with good speed. His 15 triples and 20 stolen bases are evidence of an emphasis on speed in that era.

McLouth is a by product of the emphasis and preference of plate discipline and pop at the plate. That is clearly evident from his better walk to strike out numbers and in his OBP. It is amazing to think about the changes in the game from just two decades ago.

Here is hoping that Nate does not have the drop off that Andy did the in 1989, though I think he was hurt. I think if we can get anything that can be comparable to Andy Van Slyke from Nate McLouth in the coming years, we all will be pretty happy about our outfield.